HWM AI Report

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) - Company Overview

Report Created as of: Thursday, 09/18/2025

Share Price: $190.72 ($5.33) Marketcap: $77.34B

52-Week Range: $97.43 on 09/19/2024 - $192.14 on 07/30/2025

Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Business Profile

Howmet Aerospace Inc produces products that are used primarily in aerospace commercial transportation and industrial and other markets. The company seeks to provide its customers with innovative solutions through offering differentiated products such as airfoils with advanced cooling and coatings for extreme temperature applications specially designed fasteners for lightweight composite airframe construction reduced assembly costs and lightning strike protection and lightweight aluminum commercial wheels. It has four reportable segments namely Engine Products Fastening Systems Engineered Structures and Forged Wheels.

Performance Overview

Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Industry Context

Performance Percentile by historical ranges
2 Weeks	1 Month	3 Months	6 Months	1 Year
61%	27%	47%	70%	83%

Leader under pressure, but stabilizing. Aerospace & Defense industry has been a strong long-term performer, but recently lost momentum. The uptick in the last 2 weeks suggests buyers are stepping back in.

This could indicate:

Potential resumption of leadership. If the 2-week recovery continues, Aerospace & Defense industry may be regaining strength after a temporary dip.
Healthy consolidation pattern. Often this setup reflects a normal pullback within a longer-term uptrend.
Still vulnerable. If the rebound fizzles, the industry could slide further, threatening its leadership status.
Rotation watch. Sometimes long-term leaders lose capital flows as money rotates into lagging industries.

This setup signals a long-term leading industry that experienced short-term weakness but is now rebounding. If the 2-week momentum persists, it likely marks a healthy consolidation within a broader uptrend and a potential "buy-the-dip" opportunity.

Stock vs Sector HWM Performance vs. Sector (Industrials) peers and Overall Market

Performance Percentile by historical ranges
Description	2 Weeks	1 Month	3 Months	6 Months	1 Year
	Sector	71%	78%	44%	79%	90%
	Overall Market	72%	80%	51%	86%	93%

In-line performer. Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is neither a leader nor a laggard relative to Industrials sector peers.

Interpretation:

Balanced positioning. It is tracking the sector's overall behavior rather than standing out positively or negatively.
Lack of directional edge. No strong signal from relative strength analysis. The stock is "average" across both horizons.
Low conviction zone. Hard to justify aggressive long or short positions based on sector-relative performance alone.
Rotation risk. Funds often prefer concentrating in sector leaders or contrarian laggards, leaving mid-tier names overlooked.
Stock-specific drivers matter. Earnings, guidance, or unique company catalysts will likely matter more than sector-relative trends.
Options traders. Neutral strategies (e.g., iron condors, calendars) may fit if implied volatility is favorable.

This neutral alignment suggests limited edge from sector-relative analysis, so focus shifts to stock-specific or volatility-driven opportunities.

HWM Volatility Analysis

Current Volatility Snapshot

Implied Volatility (IV): 33%
1-Year IV Percentile: 0%
Current IV is higher than 0% of readings over the past year. It is a clear signal that options are expensive relative to their own history - meaning volatility expectations are high.
Interpretation:
- Expensive options.
- Market expects big moves. Often tied to earnings, major announcements, macro events, or heightened uncertainty.
- Risk of mean reversion. Volatility tends to spike and then contract, so IV may fall back after the event (known as "volatility crush").
1-Year IV Rank: 0
Current IV Rank (0) is Neutral / Mid-Range
Interpretation:
- IV is in the middle of its 1-year range.
- Options are fairly priced. Neither cheap nor expensive.
- Market outlook is balanced: no strong expectation of extreme calm or extreme risk.
- Volatility edge is neutral. Focus shifts to directional moves.

Options Sentiment

Call / Put Ratio

Volume: 0% ( 0% )
Interpretation: Very bearish Market Sentiment: This typically indicates that traders are actively positioning for downward price movement. The market is showing strong bearish sentiment, with many traders buying puts in anticipation of a decline. This could also suggest hedging against downside risk or a general belief that the price will fall.
Open Interest: 0% ( 0% )
Interpretation: Strongly Bearish Market Sentiment: Substantially more put open interest. Traders heavily positioned for downside or hedging aggressively. May signal capitulation or oversold conditions if extreme.
Notional Value of Options Traded: 0% ( 0% )
Interpretation: Strongly Bearish Market Sentiment: Put notional value far exceeds calls. Large capital flowing into downside protection or bearish bets. Often seen during panic, market stress, or strong downtrends.
Implied Volatility: 112% ( 2% )
Interpretation: Mildly Bullish Market Sentiment: Suggests a mild bullish bias, where the implied volatility for calls is slightly higher than for puts. This indicates that investors are somewhat expecting upward movement or more volatility to the upside. There is a small preference for upside movement, but it is not extreme. Traders might anticipate a moderate increase in price or are hedging for some potential upside, but the sentiment is not strongly bullish.

Summary: A slight bearish bias is present. While traders expect some downside risk, the overall market sentiment is not heavily pessimistic. Caution exists, but confidence in a major decline is low.

Market value of open interest and average strike price weighted by open interest.

Open Interest Skew Report by Expiration
Expiration	Overall			Calls			Put
Expiration	Open Int.	Avg. Price	Avg. Strike	Open Int.	Avg. Price	Avg. Strike	Open Int.	Avg. Price	Avg. Strike

The average cost per option contract (calculated as mid-price weighted by open interest) for a given expiration month is a proxy for where traders' capital is most heavily positioned.

A higher normalized value indicates that the open interest is concentrated in more expensive options (higher implied volatility or deeper ITM).
A lower normalized value suggests open interest is focused on cheaper, out-of-the-money, or low-volatility options.

The average strike price weighted by open interest shows the "center of gravity" of traders' positioning for that expiration month. The strike price around which the majority of open interest (and thus traders' exposure) is concentrated.

For overall values:

If the value is above the current stock price, it means traders' open interest is concentrated in higher strikes (bullish bias).
If it's below the stock price, open interest is more concentrated in lower strikes (bearish bias).
If it's near the current price, positioning is balanced around the current underlying level.

HPT High Probability Trades

The following high-probability options trade ideas can be considered for HWM

Click on "Market" or "Target" column value to view 1 Year or 5 Years Historical Price Return Distribution chart

View

Trade

Estimated
Profit

Probability
of Profit

Expected
P/L

Expected
AROI

Market

Target

Short Put

Sell Nov.21 185 Put

$860

$920

82%

Probability of Profit

Normal Distribution Normal Probability is calculated using Implied Volatility, based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical Short Historical Probability reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test Short Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical Long Historical Probability reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test Long Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 Implied and Historical Volatilities based Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI Relative Strength Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO Stochastic Oscillator Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO Percentage Price Oscillator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

$376

Expected Profit / Loss

Normal Distribution EPL Normal Distribution EPL is calculated based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical EPL Short Historical EPL reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test EPL Short Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical EPL Long Historical EPL reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test EPL Long Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 EPL Implied and Historical Volatilities based EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI EPL Relative Strength Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO EPL Stochastic Oscillator Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO EPL Percentage Price Oscillator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

40.85%

Put Credit Spread

Sell Oct.17 175 Put
Buy Oct.17 170 Put

$50

$57

90%

Probability of Profit

Normal Distribution Normal Probability is calculated using Implied Volatility, based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical Short Historical Probability reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test Short Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical Long Historical Probability reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test Long Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 Implied and Historical Volatilities based Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI Relative Strength Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO Stochastic Oscillator Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO Percentage Price Oscillator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

$14

Expected Profit / Loss

Normal Distribution EPL Normal Distribution EPL is calculated based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical EPL Short Historical EPL reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test EPL Short Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical EPL Long Historical EPL reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test EPL Long Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 EPL Implied and Historical Volatilities based EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI EPL Relative Strength Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO EPL Stochastic Oscillator Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO EPL Percentage Price Oscillator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

33.33%

Short Put

Sell Oct.31w 175 Put

$280

$303

90%

Probability of Profit

Normal Distribution Normal Probability is calculated using Implied Volatility, based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical Short Historical Probability reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test Short Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical Long Historical Probability reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test Long Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 Implied and Historical Volatilities based Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI Relative Strength Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO Stochastic Oscillator Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO Percentage Price Oscillator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

$98

Expected Profit / Loss

Normal Distribution EPL Normal Distribution EPL is calculated based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical EPL Short Historical EPL reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test EPL Short Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical EPL Long Historical EPL reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test EPL Long Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 EPL Implied and Historical Volatilities based EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI EPL Relative Strength Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO EPL Stochastic Oscillator Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO EPL Percentage Price Oscillator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

28.20%

Short Put

Sell Oct.17 185 Put

$410

$418

79%

Probability of Profit

Normal Distribution Normal Probability is calculated using Implied Volatility, based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical Short Historical Probability reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test Short Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical Long Historical Probability reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test Long Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 Implied and Historical Volatilities based Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI Relative Strength Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO Stochastic Oscillator Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO Percentage Price Oscillator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

$101

Expected Profit / Loss

Normal Distribution EPL Normal Distribution EPL is calculated based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical EPL Short Historical EPL reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test EPL Short Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical EPL Long Historical EPL reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test EPL Long Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 EPL Implied and Historical Volatilities based EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI EPL Relative Strength Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO EPL Stochastic Oscillator Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO EPL Percentage Price Oscillator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

26.01%

Call Debit Spread

Sell Oct.17 180 Call
Buy Oct.17 165 Call

$150

$180

85%

Probability of Profit

Normal Distribution Normal Probability is calculated using Implied Volatility, based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical Short Historical Probability reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test Short Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical Long Historical Probability reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test Long Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 Implied and Historical Volatilities based Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI Relative Strength Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO Stochastic Oscillator Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO Percentage Price Oscillator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

$28

Expected Profit / Loss

Normal Distribution EPL Normal Distribution EPL is calculated based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical EPL Short Historical EPL reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test EPL Short Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical EPL Long Historical EPL reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test EPL Long Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 EPL Implied and Historical Volatilities based EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI EPL Relative Strength Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO EPL Stochastic Oscillator Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO EPL Percentage Price Oscillator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

20.99%

Short Put

Sell Oct.24w 185 Put

$410

$443

78%

Probability of Profit

Normal Distribution Normal Probability is calculated using Implied Volatility, based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical Short Historical Probability reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test Short Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical Long Historical Probability reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test Long Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 Implied and Historical Volatilities based Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI Relative Strength Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO Stochastic Oscillator Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO Percentage Price Oscillator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

$66

Expected Profit / Loss

Normal Distribution EPL Normal Distribution EPL is calculated based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical EPL Short Historical EPL reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test EPL Short Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical EPL Long Historical EPL reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test EPL Long Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 EPL Implied and Historical Volatilities based EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI EPL Relative Strength Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO EPL Stochastic Oscillator Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO EPL Percentage Price Oscillator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

13.55%

Put Credit Spread

Sell Oct.03w 180 Put
Buy Oct.03w 175 Put

$50

$60

86%

Probability of Profit

Normal Distribution Normal Probability is calculated using Implied Volatility, based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical Short Historical Probability reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test Short Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical Long Historical Probability reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test Long Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 Implied and Historical Volatilities based Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI Relative Strength Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO Stochastic Oscillator Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO Percentage Price Oscillator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

Expected Profit / Loss

Normal Distribution EPL Normal Distribution EPL is calculated based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical EPL Short Historical EPL reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test EPL Short Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical EPL Long Historical EPL reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test EPL Long Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 EPL Implied and Historical Volatilities based EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI EPL Relative Strength Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO EPL Stochastic Oscillator Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO EPL Percentage Price Oscillator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

4.34%

Put Credit Spread

Sell Nov.21 180 Put
Buy Nov.21 175 Put

$90

$125

80%

Probability of Profit

Normal Distribution Normal Probability is calculated using Implied Volatility, based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical Short Historical Probability reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test Short Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical Long Historical Probability reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test Long Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 Implied and Historical Volatilities based Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI Relative Strength Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO Stochastic Oscillator Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO Percentage Price Oscillator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

Expected Profit / Loss

Normal Distribution EPL Normal Distribution EPL is calculated based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical EPL Short Historical EPL reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test EPL Short Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical EPL Long Historical EPL reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test EPL Long Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 EPL Implied and Historical Volatilities based EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI EPL Relative Strength Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO EPL Stochastic Oscillator Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO EPL Percentage Price Oscillator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

0.00%