RTX AI Report

RTX Corporation (RTX) - Company Overview

Report Created as of: Thursday, 09/18/2025

Share Price: $158.22 ($-0.09) Marketcap: $211.74B

52-Week Range: $113.75 on 04/22/2025 - $160.66 on 08/28/2025

Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Business Profile

RTX Corporation is an aerospace and defense company which provides advanced systems and services for commercial military and government customers worldwide. The Company operates through three segments: Collins Aerospace Pratt & Whitney and Raytheon. Collins Aerospace segment provides technologically advanced aerospace and defense products and aftermarket service solutions for civil and military aircraft manufacturers commercial airlines and regional business and general aviation as well as for defense and commercial space operations. The Pratt & Whitney segment supplies aircraft engines for commercial military business jet and general aviation customers. The Raytheon segment provides defensive and offensive threat detection tracking and mitigation capabilities for the United States and foreign government and commercial customers. The Raytheon designs develops and provides advanced capabilities in integrated air and missile defense smart weapons missiles and others.

Performance Overview

Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Industry Context

Performance Percentile by historical ranges
2 Weeks	1 Month	3 Months	6 Months	1 Year
61%	27%	47%	70%	83%

Leader under pressure, but stabilizing. Aerospace & Defense industry has been a strong long-term performer, but recently lost momentum. The uptick in the last 2 weeks suggests buyers are stepping back in.

This could indicate:

Potential resumption of leadership. If the 2-week recovery continues, Aerospace & Defense industry may be regaining strength after a temporary dip.
Healthy consolidation pattern. Often this setup reflects a normal pullback within a longer-term uptrend.
Still vulnerable. If the rebound fizzles, the industry could slide further, threatening its leadership status.
Rotation watch. Sometimes long-term leaders lose capital flows as money rotates into lagging industries.

This setup signals a long-term leading industry that experienced short-term weakness but is now rebounding. If the 2-week momentum persists, it likely marks a healthy consolidation within a broader uptrend and a potential "buy-the-dip" opportunity.

Stock vs Sector RTX Performance vs. Sector (Industrials) peers and Overall Market

Performance Percentile by historical ranges
Description	2 Weeks	1 Month	3 Months	6 Months	1 Year
	Sector	36%	57%	34%	56%	67%
	Overall Market	27%	60%	39%	63%	77%

In-line performer. RTX Corporation (RTX) is neither a leader nor a laggard relative to Industrials sector peers.

Interpretation:

Balanced positioning. It is tracking the sector's overall behavior rather than standing out positively or negatively.
Lack of directional edge. No strong signal from relative strength analysis. The stock is "average" across both horizons.
Low conviction zone. Hard to justify aggressive long or short positions based on sector-relative performance alone.
Rotation risk. Funds often prefer concentrating in sector leaders or contrarian laggards, leaving mid-tier names overlooked.
Stock-specific drivers matter. Earnings, guidance, or unique company catalysts will likely matter more than sector-relative trends.
Options traders. Neutral strategies (e.g., iron condors, calendars) may fit if implied volatility is favorable.

This neutral alignment suggests limited edge from sector-relative analysis, so focus shifts to stock-specific or volatility-driven opportunities.

RTX Volatility Analysis

Current Volatility Snapshot

Implied Volatility (IV): 23%
1-Year IV Percentile: 53%
Current IV is higher than 53% of readings over the past year, indicating option premiums are relatively inexpensive because volatility expectations are low. Traders expect smaller price moves in the underlying. This favors long premium strategies, since you are paying less for potential movement.
1-Year IV Rank: 15
Current IV Rank (15) is Very Low
Interpretation:
- Current IV is close to the lowest level of the past year.
- Options are cheap relative to their history.
- Market expects calm/stable conditions.
- Risk: Volatility has room to rise from here (mean reversion).

Options Sentiment

Call / Put Ratio

Volume: 242% ( -219% )
Interpretation: Very bullish Market Sentiment: This is an indication of strong bullish sentiment, with traders actively betting on upward price movement. Traders are overwhelmingly favoring calls, suggesting that there is strong optimism or speculative interest in the market. A high call volume could be driven by expectations of a major price increase, possibly due to a catalyst like earnings reports, market news, or overall bullish sentiment.
Open Interest: 121% ( 1% )
Interpretation: Bullish Market Sentiment: Traders are positioning for upside; strong risk appetite or momentum sentiment. Sustained readings may precede rallies but also signal potential overextension.
Notional Value of Options Traded: 261% ( -239% )
Interpretation: Very Bullish / Speculative Market Sentiment: Large notional exposure to calls. Reflects aggressive positioning or speculative enthusiasm. May precede near-term overbought conditions or complacency.
Implied Volatility: 105% ( -2% )
Interpretation: Mildly Bullish Market Sentiment: Suggests a mild bullish bias, where the implied volatility for calls is slightly higher than for puts. This indicates that investors are somewhat expecting upward movement or more volatility to the upside. There is a small preference for upside movement, but it is not extreme. Traders might anticipate a moderate increase in price or are hedging for some potential upside, but the sentiment is not strongly bullish.

Summary: There is a stronger bullish sentiment. Traders are positioning for upward movement, reflecting growing confidence in a price increase. The market is favoring the potential for positive price action.

Market value of open interest and average strike price weighted by open interest.

Open Interest Skew Report by Expiration
Expiration	Overall			Calls			Put
Expiration	Open Int.	Avg. Price	Avg. Strike	Open Int.	Avg. Price	Avg. Strike	Open Int.	Avg. Price	Avg. Strike
09/19/2025	50,579	$3.19	$143.93	27,094	$5.77	$157.27	23,485	$0.21	$128.54
09/26/2025	3,611	$1.82	$156.92	2,253	$2.3	$160.41	1,358	$1.03	$151.12
10/03/2025	1,618	$1.74	$162.36	1,241	$1.99	$166.56	377	$0.92	$148.54
10/10/2025	847	$2.87	$155.75	523	$3.82	$159.62	324	$1.32	$149.49
10/17/2025	10,368	$2.55	$158.63	7,269	$2.94	$162.76	3,099	$1.63	$148.93
10/24/2025	1,003	$3.36	$160.95	860	$3.53	$162.67	143	$2.28	$150.61
10/31/2025	2,528	$1.15	$157.22	1,228	$1.1	$174.54	1,300	$1.2	$140.89
11/21/2025	21,296	$5.8	$150.49	13,897	$8.02	$161.02	7,399	$1.63	$130.71

The average cost per option contract (calculated as mid-price weighted by open interest) for a given expiration month is a proxy for where traders' capital is most heavily positioned.

A higher normalized value indicates that the open interest is concentrated in more expensive options (higher implied volatility or deeper ITM).
A lower normalized value suggests open interest is focused on cheaper, out-of-the-money, or low-volatility options.

The average strike price weighted by open interest shows the "center of gravity" of traders' positioning for that expiration month. The strike price around which the majority of open interest (and thus traders' exposure) is concentrated.

For overall values:

If the value is above the current stock price, it means traders' open interest is concentrated in higher strikes (bullish bias).
If it's below the stock price, open interest is more concentrated in lower strikes (bearish bias).
If it's near the current price, positioning is balanced around the current underlying level.

HPT High Probability Trades

The following high-probability options trade ideas can be considered for RTX

Click on "Market" or "Target" column value to view 1 Year or 5 Years Historical Price Return Distribution chart

View

Trade

Estimated
Profit

Probability
of Profit

Expected
P/L

Expected
AROI

Market

Target

Put Credit Spread

Sell Nov.21 145 Put
Buy Nov.21 140 Put

$66

$72

86%

Probability of Profit

Normal Distribution Normal Probability is calculated using Implied Volatility, based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical Short Historical Probability reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test Short Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical Long Historical Probability reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test Long Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 Implied and Historical Volatilities based Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI Relative Strength Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO Stochastic Oscillator Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO Percentage Price Oscillator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

$13

Expected Profit / Loss

Normal Distribution EPL Normal Distribution EPL is calculated based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical EPL Short Historical EPL reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test EPL Short Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical EPL Long Historical EPL reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test EPL Long Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 EPL Implied and Historical Volatilities based EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI EPL Relative Strength Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO EPL Stochastic Oscillator Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO EPL Percentage Price Oscillator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

14.00%

Call Debit Spread

Sell Nov.21 150 Call
Buy Nov.21 135 Call

$215

$287

82%

Probability of Profit

Normal Distribution Normal Probability is calculated using Implied Volatility, based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical Short Historical Probability reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test Short Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical Long Historical Probability reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test Long Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 Implied and Historical Volatilities based Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI Relative Strength Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO Stochastic Oscillator Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO Percentage Price Oscillator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

$39

Expected Profit / Loss

Normal Distribution EPL Normal Distribution EPL is calculated based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical EPL Short Historical EPL reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test EPL Short Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical EPL Long Historical EPL reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test EPL Long Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 EPL Implied and Historical Volatilities based EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI EPL Relative Strength Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO EPL Stochastic Oscillator Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO EPL Percentage Price Oscillator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

13.53%

Short Put

Sell Nov.21 150 Put

$325

$329

83%

Probability of Profit

Normal Distribution Normal Probability is calculated using Implied Volatility, based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical Short Historical Probability reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test Short Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical Long Historical Probability reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test Long Stress Test Probability utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 Implied and Historical Volatilities based Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI Relative Strength Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO Stochastic Oscillator Indicator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO Percentage Price Oscillator Probability utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

$45

Expected Profit / Loss

Normal Distribution EPL Normal Distribution EPL is calculated based on the assumption that historical prices have normal distribution.
Short Historical EPL Short Historical EPL reflects the specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 1 year, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Short Stress Test EPL Short Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 1 year, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
Long Historical EPL Long Historical EPL reflects specificity of each underlying historical behavior over a period of 5 years, taking direction of the underlying moves into consideration.
Long Stress Test EPL Long Stress Test EPL utilizes magnitude of historical movements over a period of 5 years, representing capability of underlying to perform certain moves without taking direction of that move into consideration.
IV and SV20 EPL Implied and Historical Volatilities based EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting volatility values into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 20 Days Statistical and Implied Volatilities historical behavior in conditions similar to their current values.
RSI EPL Relative Strength Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current RSI values.
SO EPL Stochastic Oscillator Indicator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current SO values.
PPO EPL Percentage Price Oscillator EPL utilizes a new methodology of converting trend analysis indicators into functional probability values, allowing a multi-pronged approach to probability analysis. Probability of profit for the trade is based on analysis of 6 years of historical underlying asset behavior in conditions similar to the current PPO values.

7.61%